Current replication
Spearman rank correlation
0.95Measured 2026-09-27
View this run ↗Public Health · 2020
Factors Associated With US Adults' Likelihood of Accepting COVID-19 Vaccination
Efficacy won Americans over; a Chinese origin cost 13 points.
Read the paper ↗01 / Human finding
What the study found
Efficacy won Americans over; a Chinese origin cost 13 points.
Answer-key review: AI-reviewed
02 / Experiment design
Who chose, and what varied
- Country
- United States
- Human respondents
- 1971
- Attributes
- 7
- Task
- discrete choice
03 / Synthetic replication
Registry replication results
Paper-era reference
2023 CLM mean Spearman ρ
0.62Historical results use their original estimator and reference. They are not a matched comparison with the current run.
Detailed replication evidence · 2026-10-02
Right direction on all 9 significant effects, close ranking (ρ = 0.94), but synthetic effects 2.5× larger than human ones.
Use it to screen and rank which attributes move choice; calibrate sizes against a small human study before forecasting.
- direction
- holds
- rank
- holds
- size
- not equivalent
Supported uses
- Screening which attributes move choice, and in which direction.
- Ranking attributes and levels by how strongly they move choice.
Limits to keep in view
- Forecasting the size of a shift without a human calibration anchor.
Effects on a common scale
Human effects: change in choice probability. Synthetic effects are multiplied by the record’s calibration factor, k = 0.3955. Calibration aligns magnitude; it does not establish agreement in unadjusted effect sizes.
| Attribute / level | Human | Human 95% half-width | Calibrated synthetic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaccine efficacy: The vaccine efficacy is 50% (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Vaccine efficacy: The vaccine efficacy is 70% | 0.070 | 0.015 | 0.067 |
| Vaccine efficacy: The vaccine efficacy is 90% | 0.160 | 0.015 | 0.133 |
| Protection duration: The vaccine protection lasts 1 year (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Protection duration: The vaccine protection lasts 5 years | 0.050 | 0.015 | 0.068 |
| Major adverse effect rate: Major adverse effects occur for 1 in 10000 (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Major adverse effect rate: Major adverse effects occur for 1 in 1000000 | 0.070 | 0.015 | 0.101 |
| Minor adverse effect rate: Minor adverse effects occur for 1 in 10 (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Minor adverse effect rate: Minor adverse effects occur for 1 in 30 | 0.010 | 0.015 | 0.041 |
| FDA Approval: The vaccine is FDA approved and licensed (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| FDA Approval: The vaccine has FDA Emergency Use Authorization | -0.030 | 0.015 | -0.048 |
| Vaccine origin: The vaccine origin was the United States of America (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Vaccine origin: The vaccine origin was the United Kingdom | -0.040 | 0.020 | -0.019 |
| Vaccine origin: The vaccine origin was China | -0.130 | 0.020 | -0.101 |
| Endorsement: The vaccine is endorsed by Trump (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Endorsement: The vaccine is endorsed by Biden | 0.020 | 0.021 | 0.041 |
| Endorsement: The vaccine is endorsed by the CDC | 0.090 | 0.020 | 0.041 |
| Endorsement: The vaccine is endorsed by the WHO | 0.060 | 0.020 | 0.070 |
04 / Evidence and limitations
Follow the evidence
Missing results mean unmeasured, not zero agreement.