Current replication
Spearman rank correlation
Not measuredNo current measurement is available in this registry.
Public Policy · 2011
The Hidden American Immigration Consensus: A Conjoint Analysis of Attitudes toward Immigrants
Americans favor educated, skilled immigrants and penalize unauthorized entry.
Read the paper ↗01 / Human finding
What the study found
Americans favor educated, skilled immigrants and penalize unauthorized entry.
Answer-key review: AI-reviewed
02 / Experiment design
Who chose, and what varied
- Country
- United States
- Human respondents
- 1407
- Attributes
- 9
- Task
- discrete choice
03 / Synthetic replication
Registry replication results
Paper-era reference
2023 CLM mean Spearman ρ
0.54Historical results use their original estimator and reference. They are not a matched comparison with the current run.
Detailed replication evidence · 2026-10-28
Right direction on 26 of 29 significant effects, partial ranking (ρ = 0.77), but synthetic effects 1.6× larger than human ones.
Use it to screen which attributes move choice; calibrate sizes against a small human study before forecasting, and confirm the 3 reversed effects with people.
- direction
- mixed
- rank
- mixed
- size
- not equivalent
Supported uses
- Nothing yet without human confirmation.
Limits to keep in view
- Ranking close levels against each other; the order diverges from humans.
- Decisions that hinge on the attributes whose direction flipped (listed below).
- Forecasting the size of a shift without a human calibration anchor.
Effects on a common scale
Human effects: change in choice probability. Synthetic effects are multiplied by the record’s calibration factor, k = 0.6073. Calibration aligns magnitude; it does not establish agreement in unadjusted effect sizes.
| Attribute / level | Human | Human 95% half-width | Calibrated synthetic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gender: Gender is Female (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Gender: Gender is Male | -0.024 | Not measured | -0.040 |
| Education Level: No formal education (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Education Level: Highest level of education is 4th grade | 0.048 | Not measured | 0.065 |
| Education Level: Highest level of education is 8th grade | 0.058 | Not measured | 0.085 |
| Education Level: Highest level of education is high school | 0.115 | Not measured | 0.097 |
| Education Level: Highest level of education is two-year college | 0.145 | Not measured | 0.068 |
| Education Level: Highest level of education is college degree | 0.196 | Not measured | 0.093 |
| Education Level: Highest level of education is graduate degree | 0.168 | Not measured | 0.161 |
| Language Skills: During admission interview, this applicant spoke fluent English (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Language Skills: During admission interview, this applicant spoke broken English | -0.064 | Not measured | -0.130 |
| Language Skills: During admission interview, this applicant tried to speak English but was unable | -0.130 | Not measured | -0.178 |
| Language Skills: During admission interview, this applicant spoke through an interpreter | -0.162 | Not measured | -0.192 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is Germany | 0.040 | Not measured | -0.032 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is France | 0.028 | Not measured | -0.025 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is Mexico | 0.021 | Not measured | -0.018 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is Philippines | 0.033 | Not measured | 0.008 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is Poland | 0.018 | Not measured | -0.013 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is India (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is China | -0.011 | Not measured | -0.016 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is Sudan | -0.026 | Not measured | -0.002 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is Somalia | -0.034 | Not measured | -0.059 |
| Country of Origin: Country of Origin is Iraq | -0.106 | Not measured | 0.044 |
| Profession: Profession is Janitor (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Profession: Profession is Waiter | 0.011 | Not measured | 0.074 |
| Profession: Profession is Child care provider | 0.026 | Not measured | 0.138 |
| Profession: Profession is Gardener | 0.024 | Not measured | 0.020 |
| Profession: Profession is Financial analyst | 0.079 | Not measured | 0.168 |
| Profession: Profession is Construction worker | 0.053 | Not measured | 0.007 |
| Profession: Profession is Teacher | 0.073 | Not measured | 0.124 |
| Profession: Profession is Computer programmer | 0.098 | Not measured | 0.057 |
| Profession: Profession is Nurse | 0.089 | Not measured | 0.143 |
| Profession: Profession is Research scientist | 0.144 | Not measured | 0.042 |
| Profession: Profession is Doctor | 0.185 | Not measured | 0.171 |
| Job Experience: No job training or prior experience (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Job Experience: Job Experience is One to two years | 0.064 | Not measured | 0.087 |
| Job Experience: Job Experience is Three to five years | 0.100 | Not measured | 0.091 |
| Job Experience: Job Experience is More than five years | 0.123 | Not measured | 0.149 |
| Employment Plans: Has a contract with a U.S. employer | 0.118 | Not measured | 0.108 |
| Employment Plans: Does not have a contract with a U.S. employer, but has done job interviews | 0.020 | Not measured | -0.108 |
| Employment Plans: Will look for work after arriving in the U.S. (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Employment Plans: Has no plans to look for work at this time | -0.151 | Not measured | -0.165 |
| Reason for Application: Reason for Application is to Reunite with family members already in U.S. (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Reason for Application: Reason for Application is to Seek better job in U.S. | -0.026 | Not measured | -0.060 |
| Reason for Application: Reason for Application is to Escape political/religious persecution | 0.059 | Not measured | 0.067 |
| Prior trips to the United States: Never been to the U.S. (reference) | 0.000 | Not measured | 0.000 |
| Prior trips to the United States: Entered the U.S. once before on a tourist visa | 0.074 | Not measured | -0.010 |
| Prior trips to the United States: Has visited the U.S. many times before on tourist visas | 0.057 | Not measured | -0.023 |
| Prior trips to the United States: Spent six months with family members in the U.S. | 0.085 | Not measured | 0.002 |
| Prior trips to the United States: Entered the U.S. once before without legal authorization | -0.108 | Not measured | -0.056 |
Respondent model comparison
Each row retains its recorded answer-key version and matched comparison. Scaled RMSE is shown with its corresponding scale factor.
| Model | Answer key | Spearman ρ | Scaled RMSE | Scale k |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| naive:claude-sonnet-5-5 | 2 | 0.94 | 0.028 | 1.1480 |
| typesafe:jev-1.13.0 | 2 | 0.84 | 0.055 | 0.6841 |
| naive:gpt-5.6-terra | 2 | 0.82 | 0.051 | 1.3162 |
| zai.glm-5 | 2 | 0.81 | 0.052 | 0.5134 |
| qwen.qwen3-next-80b-a3b | 2 | 0.80 | 0.061 | 0.6369 |
| mistral.mistral-large-3-675b-instruct | 2 | 0.77 | 0.056 | 0.4731 |
| us.meta.llama4-maverick-17b-instruct-v1:0 | 2 | 0.75 | 0.056 | 0.6600 |
04 / Evidence and limitations
Follow the evidence
Missing results mean unmeasured, not zero agreement.